NCEP GFS Deterministic Global 2-meter Temperature Anomaly


*Redistribution is prohibited.
*Climatology based upon the NCEP CFSR Reanalysis (1981-2010) 30-year average. Note the GFS analysis and NCEP CFSR reanalysis global 2-meter temperatures are slightly different with known biases over certain areas. The blue bubbles that are previous to the current forecast are the GFS deterministic forecast analysis global temperature anomalies. However, the differences when integrated over the Earth do not significantly affect the overall anomaly trend/signal. Yet, the "actual" global bias numbers may differ by about 0.1 degrees C. Be smart when you interpret all model estimate of temperature (or anything!)

 

NCEP CFSR/CFSv2 Year to Date | Month to Date Temperature Anomaly

 

2009 - 2012 Global Temperature Traces | NCEP CFSR & JRA25 Reanalysis


 
Note on the daily reanalysis temperature anomalies: each is calculated according to its OWN model climatology based upon the years 1981-2010. It is an ongoing research question to be determined which is "correct" or most accurate. Detailed spatial examination of monthly means and how each reanalysis represents the two-meter temperature must be done before making grandiose claims about global warming/cooling.

Also, note these are global anomalies calculated according to each time of the year. Thus, a 0.5 degree anomaly C during January is a considerably greater departure from the "global temperature" than 0.5 degree C anomaly in July.


Global Warming

1979 - 2011 Global Temperature Traces | JRA25 Reanalysis


   

Redistribution Prohibited, ongoing research

These JRA25 temperature traces are related to a previous post on Anthony Watt's blog titled: It's such a cold December: 2010 ends on a chilly note where people live. Blog page link

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